The Almond Board of California released its final position report for the 2025/2026 crop year today, closing the books on the season, and the numbers tell a story of resilient export markets, a soft domestic picture, and a tightening supply outlook heading into the new season. For growers, processors, and ag professionals across California, the report offers both reassurance and a few points worth watching closely.

The Headline Numbers

Total shipments for the 2025/2026 crop year came in at just under 2.63 billion pounds, down a modest 0.64 percent from the prior year’s 2.65 billion. That near-flat result masks a real divergence underneath: exports climbed while domestic demand pulled back sharply.

Exports finished the year at 2.03 billion pounds, up 3.00 percent over 2024/2025. Domestic shipments, by contrast, dropped 11.33 percent to 595.3 million pounds. In plain terms, the world kept buying California almonds at a healthy clip even as the home market cooled considerably.

Crop receipts for the year totaled roughly 2.69 billion pounds, about 0.70 percent below the previous year. After accounting for the standard loss and exempt deduction and adding the carry-in from August 2025, total supply landed at about 3.12 billion pounds, down 1.19 percent year over year.

Why the Domestic Slide Matters

The 11.33 percent decline in domestic shipments is the number that should catch the attention of anyone selling into the U.S. market. Looking at the monthly breakdown, domestic demand was down in nearly every month of the crop year, with double-digit percentage drops in August, October, February, and several others. Only March and July finished ahead of the prior year.

For handlers and marketers, this signals continued softness in U.S. consumption or buyer caution that has persisted across the year, worth factoring into pricing and promotional strategy for the coming season. Domestic buyers may be working through inventory, adjusting to price movements, or shifting purchasing patterns. Whatever the cause, the domestic channel underperformed the export side by a wide margin.

Exports Carried the Year

The export story is more encouraging. The 3.00 percent gain was driven by standout performance in several key regions. India remains the single largest destination by volume, though its year-to-date total slipped about 11 percent. The real momentum came from elsewhere:

• Turkey surged, with year-to-date shipments up roughly 45 percent to over 156 million pounds, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing markets.
• Pakistan posted extraordinary growth, up more than 400 percent, reflecting a dramatic expansion in demand.
• Morocco climbed nearly 49 percent, and Belgium was up 69 percent, pointing to strength across North Africa and Western Europe.
• Spain and Italy, both major processing hubs in Europe, showed solid gains of 19 and 9 percent respectively.

On the softer side, China/Hong Kong fell about 34 percent year to date, and several traditional Northeast Asian markets, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all declined. That regional weakness is a reminder that the export gains, while real, are not universal and depend heavily on a handful of expanding markets.

Supply Tightening and What It Means for Prices

Perhaps the most consequential figure for growers is uncommitted inventory, which fell 17.18 percent year over year to about 248 million pounds. Computed inventory of about 494 million pounds was down 4.02 percent. A tighter inventory position typically supports firmer pricing, and the sharp drop in uncommitted supply suggests the pipeline is leaner heading into the transition to the new crop.

Commitments also point in a supportive direction. Total committed shipments, almonds sold but not yet delivered, were up 14.27 percent, with domestic commitments up 16.66 percent and export commitments up 12.45 percent. Notably, the domestic commitment increase stands in contrast to the weak domestic shipment numbers, hinting that buyers may be positioning for the year ahead even as current-year deliveries lagged.

For the 2026/2027 crop already being sold forward, handlers reported more than 302 million pounds sold to date, weighted heavily toward exports at about 225 million pounds versus roughly 77 million domestic.

Looking at the New Crop

The Board’s forecast for the 2025/2026 crop year included a projected 3.0 billion pounds in crop receipts and a forecasted carryout of 625 million pounds. With the final receipts coming in near 2.69 billion, below the forecast, the supply picture is somewhat tighter than the earlier projection implied, which again tends to favor growers on price.

The supplemental Almond Tree Fruit report offers a broader-picture reminder of the industry’s full footprint: the 2025/2026 crop produced an estimated 8.721 billion pounds of total tree fruit, of which kernels are only 31 percent. The remaining hulls (49 percent) and shells (20 percent) represent 6 billion pounds of coproducts used in dairy feed, livestock bedding, and increasingly in new applications the industry continues to develop.

Quality and Regional Notes

On the quality front, the industry-wide reject rate held at 2.63 percent, a solid result. Nonpareil remained the dominant variety at 38.35 percent of total receipts, followed by Monterey at 18.70 percent and Independence at 16.40 percent.

Geographically, the Southern region continued to lead production at 49.78 percent of the crop, with Fresno and Kern counties the two largest producers. The Central region, anchored by Stanislaus and Merced counties, contributed 32.77 percent, and the Northern region 17.45 percent.

The Takeaway for the Industry

The 2025/2026 crop year closes with a mixed but generally constructive picture. Export strength, a tightening inventory position, and healthy forward commitments are all positives that should support the market. The clear concern is the double-digit decline in domestic demand, which handlers and marketers will need to address heading into the new year.

For growers, the leaner supply and firmer commitment picture are encouraging signs. For processors and handlers, the message is to lean into the export markets that are performing, Turkey, Pakistan, North Africa, and Western Europe, while working to understand and reverse the softness at home. Ag professionals advising clients should keep a close eye on how the domestic channel behaves as the new crop comes online, since that will be the swing factor determining whether the tighter supply translates into stronger returns across the board.