Water Cuts, Trade War Chaos, and a $1 Billion Deadline in 9 Days — California Farming Is at a Crossroads

Bureau of Reclamation Sets Just 15% for South-of-Delta Irrigators — Farmers and Lawmakers Push Back

On February 26, the Bureau of Reclamation released its initial 2026 water supply allocations for California’s Central Valley Project (CVP) — the federal water delivery system serving roughly 3 million acres of farmland across the state. For South-of-Delta irrigation contractors, including major San Joaquin Valley farming operations, the initial allocation came in at just 15% of their contract supply. Eastside contractors, including the Central San Joaquin Water Conservation District and the Stockton East Water District, received 0% of their contract supply. Friant Division contractors — serving the Kings River corridor and eastern San Joaquin Valley — received 100% of their Class 1 supply but 0% of their Class 2 supply. North-of-Delta users fared far better, receiving 100% of contract totals.

The Bureau cited below-average snowpack as the primary reason for the conservative allocation, noting that as of late February, statewide snowpack measured roughly 59% of the historical average. That rationale has sparked sharp pushback from Valley farming interests and their congressional representatives. In a joint statement, U.S. Representatives Josh Harder and Jim Costa said the allocation “is not justified” given substantial snowpack improvement over recent years and multiple wet seasons that lifted California out of drought. Officials with Westlands Water District and other major irrigation contractors echoed those concerns, arguing that improved reservoir storage and recent storm activity should support higher deliveries. The Bureau indicated further allocation updates are expected in March and April as new hydrologic data becomes available.

The California State Board of Food and Agriculture addressed water conditions directly at its March 3 meeting in Sacramento. CDFA Secretary Karen Ross noted that recent weather has improved the summer water outlook, but cautioned that long-term supply reliability for farms, cities, and the environment remains an ongoing challenge. The meeting featured presentations on Sites Reservoir development, groundwater management, the Water Blueprint for the San Joaquin Valley, and SGMA (Sustainable Groundwater Management Act) implementation — all issues with direct consequences for growers planning spring irrigation schedules.

What Growers Should Do: South-of-Delta farmers should immediately assess on-farm water storage, groundwater pump capacity, and fallowing contingency plans. Contact your water district now for the latest March update. Growers in the Friant Division should confirm Class 1 delivery dates. The Bureau’s next allocation update is expected before April 1.

URGENT: California Specialty Crop Producers Have Until March 13 to Enroll in $1 Billion Federal Aid Program

California fruit, vegetable, nut, and specialty crop growers face an immediate deadline: the U.S. Department of Agriculture is providing $1 billion in Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers (ASCF) Program payments, and the acreage reporting deadline is March 13, 2026 — just nine days away.

These are one-time bridge payments designed to address ongoing market disruptions: elevated input costs, persistent inflation, and lost export revenue from foreign competitors. Payments are based on reported 2025 planted acres, and commodity-specific payment rates will be announced by end of March. Critically, USDA has confirmed that crop insurance linkage will not be required — meaning growers do not need to have carried a federal crop insurance policy to qualify.

The ASCF program is administered by USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act. CDFA Secretary Karen Ross highlighted the program in a recent Planting Seeds blog post and urged producers to verify that their 2025 acreage records are accurate and submitted to their local FSA county office before the deadline. California is home to the nation’s most diverse specialty crop portfolio — almonds, pistachios, walnuts, strawberries, lettuce, processing tomatoes, wine grapes, and citrus among dozens of qualifying commodities.

California’s specialty crop industry generates over $61 billion annually in farm production value, according to CDFA’s most recent annual report, representing the largest share of the state’s total agricultural output. Missing the enrollment window means forfeiting payments entirely. Contact your local USDA-FSA county office today or visit fsa.usda.gov/fba for more information. This deadline cannot be extended, so act now!

Major Tariff Shakeup: Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs — But a New 10% Global Tariff Is Already in Place

In a landmark ruling on February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), ruling 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, concluded that IEEPA’s authority to ‘regulate importation’ cannot be stretched to include taxing authority, noting that the law contains no reference to ‘tariffs’ or ‘duties’ whatsoever. The decision vacated a tariff regime that had collected an estimated $142 billion from importers over the course of 2025 — and potentially entitles thousands of importers to refunds, though the mechanics of that process remain unresolved.

For California growers, the ruling creates a complex, fast-moving situation. Within hours of the Supreme Court decision, President Trump issued an executive order confirming IEEPA tariffs would no longer be collected — and simultaneously announced new 10% global tariffs on all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24, 2026. USTR Jamieson Greer has signaled these rates could increase for some countries. The Section 122 authority is capped at 150 days, expiring around July 24, 2026, unless modified or extended by Congress.

Critically for California’s tree nut, dairy, and specialty crop exporters: China’s retaliatory tariffs on California agricultural products are not affected by the SCOTUS ruling — those were imposed by China, not under IEEPA. California almonds currently face a 35% total tariff in China, California walnuts face 100% tariffs in India dating to 2019, and Turkey raised its tariff on imported walnuts and almonds on February 1, 2026. These retaliatory tariffs remain fully in effect regardless of the SCOTUS ruling.The UC Giannini Foundation published peer-reviewed research this January documenting the scale of damage from the 2025 trade conflict: producers of almonds, dairy, wine, and other globally oriented commodities suffered significant revenue losses and restricted market access due to Chinese retaliatory tariffs, with international trade disruptions posing a serious threat to California’s position in global agriculture. California agricultural exports reached approximately $23.8 billion in 2024, with almonds alone accounting for roughly 20% of that total.

There is one piece of good news: the EU announced a trade deal with the U.S. in July 2025 under which a 15% tariff applies to most EU goods entering the U.S. — and zero-for-zero tariffs were agreed for various strategic products including certain agricultural commodities. Additionally, Trump agreed in February 2026 to lower tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, replacing the prior higher retaliatory rate. Both developments may modestly improve export prospects for California wine, tree nuts, and citrus in those markets, though uncertainty over the new Section 122 tariffs is keeping buyers cautious.

What Growers Should Do: Do not assume the SCOTUS ruling resolved your export market challenges — China’s retaliatory tariffs on almonds, dairy, and other California crops remain at 35% and are unaffected. If you paid IEEPA tariffs on imported inputs in 2025, contact your trade attorney or customs broker about potential refund claims. Monitor the Section 122 tariff situation closely — the 10% rate is in effect through July 2026 but could change. Work with your commodity board on diversification.

CDFA Releases Annual Report and Advances Climate Resilience Strategy; House Farm Bill Markup Begins

On February 9, CDFA Secretary Karen Ross released the department’s annual report, ‘CDFA’s Contributions to California’s Agricultural Excellence,’ outlining the breadth of state programs supporting California’s $61.2 billion farm economy. Several priorities in the report carry direct relevance for growers statewide:

  • Climate Resilience Strategy: CDFA is developing a formal statewide Climate Resilience Strategy for California Agriculture, built through public workshops, scientific advisory panels, and cross-agency coordination. The strategy is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance biodiversity, improve water and nutrient management, and maintain farm profitability. Growers participating in cost-share programs, SWEEP irrigation efficiency grants, or Climate Smart Agriculture technical assistance should watch for new funding rounds tied to this strategy’s rollout.
  • Bird Flu / One Health: Avian influenza monitoring remains a top CDFA priority. The report describes the department’s ‘One Health’ approach linking plant, animal, and human health systems. Poultry operators and dairy producers should stay current on CDFA’s Avian Influenza Updates page (cdfa.ca.gov) for the latest movement and biosecurity guidance.
  • Pest Prevention and Invasive Species: The report notes California receives an estimated 8.05 million parcels per day, elevating the risk of new invasive species introductions.[6] Growers near ports of entry or in high-risk corridors should review current CDFA quarantine alerts.

 

At the federal level, the House Agriculture Committee began marking up the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 on March 3 — the long-delayed successor to the 2018 Farm Bill. Key provisions relevant to California include a newly created Specialty Crop Emergency Assistance Framework establishing a permanent structure for delivering aid to fruit, vegetable, tree nut, horticulture, and nursery growers; increased FSA loan limits for operating and ownership loans; and a pesticide labeling uniformity provision establishing the EPA as the sole authority on pesticide safety findings. The 2018 Farm Bill extension runs through September 2026, giving Congress a firm deadline before another extension would be required.

California Grower Action Items This Week

  1. ENROLL NOW (deadline March 13): Report 2025 specialty crop acreage to your local FSA office by 5 p.m. ET on March 13. Visit fsa.usda.gov/fba.
  2. WATER — South-of-Delta Growers: Your initial CVP allocation is 15%. Contact your district for the March update and plan fallowing priorities now.
  3. EXPORT MARKETS — Tree Nut, Dairy, Wine Grape Growers: Retaliatory tariffs remain in place. Work with your commodity board on diversification and monitor India/EU negotiations closely.
  4. CDFA PROGRAMS: Monitor cdfa.ca.gov for Climate Smart Agriculture funding rounds, SWEEP grants, and Avian Influenza biosecurity updates.

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