Key Numbers at a Glance

• Forecasted Production: 2.70 billion pounds (shelled basis) — down 1% from 2025
• Bearing Acreage: 1,390,000 acres — down 1% from 2025
• Forecasted Yield: 1,940 lbs/acre — unchanged from 2025

The Opening Number Is Out

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its 2026 California Almond Subjective Forecast today, putting the season’s opening production estimate at 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis, a 1 percent decline from last year’s final production figure of 2.715 billion pounds. Bearing acreage is estimated at 1.39 million acres, also down 1 percent from 2025, while the forecasted yield of 1,940 pounds per acre holds flat year-over-year.

The forecast was built from a subjective survey of approximately 500 California almond growers, conducted April 21 through May 6. Growers were asked to report their total and bearing acreage alongside their expected 2026 production. The survey is a stratified random sample, grouped by size of operation, ensuring proportional representation across the industry.

For growers who have been watching the market closely, today’s number lands within expectations. Land IQ’s April 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate had already confirmed that bearing acreage declined for the first time since 1995, the cumulative result of years of orchard removals driven by tight margins, elevated input costs, and persistent water uncertainty across the San Joaquin Valley.

At first glance, a 1 percent decline in production may not register as a major shift. But for an industry that spent much of 2025 contending with the market disruption of a 3.0 billion pound Objective Measurement estimate and the price volatility that followed, a more measured forecast is likely to be received as a stabilizing signal by handlers and growers alike.

 

The Report Looks Different This Year

Growers and industry members who accessed the report this morning may have immediately noticed it no longer resembles the California-specific publication they have relied on for decades. That change is the result of a broader USDA-NASS agency-wide decision, not a request from the Almond Board of California.

NASS announced it will no longer generate publications tailored specifically to individual states or regions. As a result, the 2026 Almond Subjective Forecast is now embedded within the national May 2026 Crop Production report rather than released as a standalone California document. The almond bearing acreage, yield, and production data appears on page 8 of the national report, with crop narrative comments on page 22.

The Almond Board of California issued a cover memorandum today to assist industry members in navigating the new format, noting that the underlying methodology and state-level data remain unchanged. California almond data continues to be accessible through the national releases and through NASS’s public online database, Quick Stats.

 

No Objective Measurement This July

Perhaps more consequential than the format change is what will not be coming this summer. In December 2025, the Almond Board of California’s Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA-NASS Objective Measurement Report, the July estimate that has historically provided a second, more statistically rigorous look at the California almond crop based on physical orchard sampling.

That decision followed sustained industry concern over the Objective Measurement’s accuracy. Last year’s July estimate of 3.0 billion pounds, well above the May Subjective Forecast of 2.8 billion, triggered a price decline of approximately 50 cents per pound that required nearly nine weeks for the market to absorb. Many growers and handlers maintained that the Subjective figure was a more accurate reflection of actual crop conditions.

With the Objective Measurement no longer on the calendar, today’s Subjective Forecast stands as the sole official USDA production estimate for the 2026 almond season. There will be no mid-season recalibration from NASS. Industry participants — growers, handlers, and buyers alike — will rely more heavily on this single figure, supplemented by private industry estimates, as the crop moves toward harvest.

 

A Shrinking Orchard Base Sets the Stage

The 2026 forecast does not exist in isolation. It arrives against the backdrop of a structural contraction that has been building in the California almond industry for several years. According to Land IQ’s April 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate, California bearing almond acreage now stands at approximately 1,385,870 acres, a decline of more than 15,000 acres from the 2025 final estimate of 1.4 million acres, and the first recorded decrease since 1995.

An estimated 47,588 acres of orchards were removed over the past year, compounding the nearly 49,197 acres removed in the prior crop year. The cumulative impact of those removals is now reflected directly in today’s bearing acreage figures. For producers who have maintained their operations through a difficult market cycle, a tightening supply base could gradually support improved pricing dynamics — though the pace and degree of that recovery will depend heavily on demand conditions, trade policy developments, and the volume of production that comes in off the remaining orchard base.

 

What to Watch From Here

With no Objective Measurement scheduled for July, the industry’s attention will turn squarely to how the season unfolds between now and harvest. Weather patterns through hull split, nut sizing, pest and disease pressure, and water delivery reliability will all factor into whether today’s 2.70 billion pound figure holds, comes in softer, or surprises to the upside.

Export market conditions also warrant close attention. Shipments to the European Union have remained a consistent area of strength for California almonds, but broader trade policy uncertainty, particularly around tariff structures, continues to introduce risk into the longer-term demand picture. Domestic consumption trends and the opening carry-in position heading into the new crop year will also shape how the market receives today’s estimate.

For now, California’s almond industry has its opening benchmark. At 2.70 billion pounds, the 2026 season is forecasted to come in slightly smaller than last year, a figure that reflects both the realities of a reduced orchard base and the measured expectations of the growers who work it every day.

 

Read the Full Report

To review the complete 2026 USDA-NASS Almond Subjective Forecast in full, including all bearing acreage, yield, and production data, visit the Almond Board of California’s crop reports page or download the report directly: 2026 NASS Almond Subjective Forecast — Full Report (PDF).