Terra Nova Trading has released its 2026 California Almond Crop Estimate, projecting a statewide average yield of 1,985 pounds per acre and an implied crop of approximately 2.66 billion pounds, a figure that landed as something of a surprise to many in the industry. The estimate, based on Terra Nova’s own bearing acreage multiplier of 1,340,000 acres, suggests a crop either slightly below or roughly in line with last year’s 2.7 billion pound harvest. It is also the fifth consecutive year that statewide average yields have come in below the 2,000-pound-per-acre mark.

 

It is worth noting, however, that Terra Nova’s estimate uses its own acreage assumptions rather than the recently released Land IQ data, which pegs bearing acreage at approximately 1,385,870 acres. Applying the Land IQ figures to Terra Nova’s per-acre yield would push the implied crop closer to 2.75 billion pounds, a meaningful difference that has already prompted discussion among handlers and buyers. “While we believe the crop is likely larger than last year, it’s important to recognize that Terra Nova conducted a comprehensive orchard tour across the state,” said Zac Days, Partner and General Manager at Cal Coast Almond Processing. “Our visibility is more limited to Stanislaus and surrounding counties, so we give their field work significant weight.”

A Challenging Season from the Start

The 2026 growing season brought a mix of promising and difficult conditions. Bloom opened slightly earlier than normal with warm, sunny weather, but deteriorated sharply around peak Nonpareil bloom, bringing cold, rain, near-freezing temperatures, and even snow in Northern growing regions. Post-bloom conditions recovered through the first half of March before record-breaking heat swept all almond-growing regions in the second half of the month. April brought further disruption with heavy rains and localized hail in parts of the central growing region. Despite the turbulence, one Central Valley grower, who asked to remain anonymous, described their outlook as guardedly hopeful: “After the last few years, I’ll be cautiously optimistic. The trees look healthier than they did this time last year, and some of my varieties are carrying a decent load. The weather threw a lot at us during bloom, but what came out the other side doesn’t look bad. As long as we don’t get hammered with heat this summer and water stays manageable, I think we’ve got a reasonable crop coming.”

What Terra Nova Found in the Field

Covering nearly 1,600 miles over seven days and visiting 558 sample orchards statewide, Terra Nova’s field team found a crop that varied widely by region. Northern counties, particularly Glenn, Tehama, and Butte, came in poor to very poor, a notable concern given the North effectively ranks as the state’s second-largest producing region. Central counties were inconsistent, with San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced showing decent results, while Fresno and Madera improved over last year’s disappointing performance. Southern counties including Kings, Kern, and Tulare were the most spotty, with orchards outside of reliable irrigation districts visibly beginning to show the effects of SGMA water regulations. A common theme throughout the tour was leafy, vegetative-looking trees carrying below-average to average loads, a sign that trees are not under the stress of supporting a heavy crop.

 

On the variety side, Butte/Padre were the clear standouts, repeatedly impressing estimators in the field, though limited acreage will cap total receipts. Independence is on track for a record crop thanks to its resilience during the difficult bloom weather and continued acreage expansion. Monterey showed modest improvement over last year with good sizing expected, while Nonpareil came in similar to 2025, spotty in many areas but aided by larger projected kernel size. Aldrich swung sharply lower after a strong 2025, and Carmel continues its long-term decline. Fritz held steady, and minor varieties like Wood Colony, Winters, and Price were average to below average.

A Structural Shift in California Almond Production

Beyond the 2026 season specifically, the estimate adds to a growing body of evidence that California’s almond production ceiling may be structurally lower than it was a decade ago. New plantings have shifted away from the historically high-yielding Southern San Joaquin Valley, the South’s share of new acreage dropped from 50% of total plantings in the 2016–2020 cycle to just 33% for orchards planted in 2022–2023. Central and Northern regions, which carry lower average yields, have picked up the difference. Meanwhile, SGMA water regulations continue to accelerate orchard removals in the state’s most productive areas, with that land increasingly transitioning to pistachios, row crops, or solar. Land IQ’s Initial Acreage Estimate confirmed that bearing acreage has declined for the first time since 1995, with nearly 100,000 acres removed over the past two crop years alone.

First Year Without a USDA Objective Measurement Report and What It Means for the Market

Adding further complexity to an already uncertain season, 2026 is the first year in decades without a USDA NASS Objective Measurement Report. In December 2025, the Almond Board of California voted to eliminate the mid-season report from the calendar, leaving the industry without its traditional government-backed reference point for pricing and supply decisions. That absence puts more pressure on independent estimates and more scrutiny on their methodology and acreage assumptions.

 

Zac Days acknowledged that the Terra Nova estimate is likely to move markets in the short term. “Following this report, we expect some upward pressure on grower and processor pricing,” he said. “That said, with the USDA Subjective Estimate set to be released in just over a week, it’s likely that many buyers will remain on the sidelines until then.” He also pointed to Terra Nova’s credibility as a reason to take the estimate seriously despite the acreage debate: “Terra Nova’s estimate last year was among the most accurate in the industry, closely aligning with the USDA’s final figures.” The USDA NASS Subjective Estimate is scheduled for release on May 12, 2026.

Looking Ahead

The overall picture heading into harvest is one of cautious watchfulness rather than alarm or wide-eyed optimism. The crop appears to be in the range of last year’s output, with some upside possible depending on which acreage figures prove most accurate, and key variables including summer heat, water availability, and input decisions still have months to play out. The Central Valley grower summed it up plainly: “There’s still a lot of season left, and I’ve seen crops go both ways from here. But the foundation feels better than it has in a few years. I’m focused on doing my part and hoping the weather cooperates.”

As Days put it, the industry should expect “much clearer direction from the market once the USDA report is published” on May 12. Until then, the Terra Nova estimate stands as the most comprehensive independent data point available and given the firm’s track record, it is one the market will be watching closely.

The full Terra Nova 2026 California Almond Crop Estimate report is available at terranovatradinginc.com.