If you’ve been trying to make fertilizer purchasing decisions lately, you already know the market has been anything but stable. The situation tied to the Strait of Hormuz conflict has been hammering prices week to week, and for California growers heading into a critical growing window, understanding what’s happening and having a plan has never mattered more.

How We Got Here: The Strait of Hormuz and Why It Matters to Your Operation

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, triggering a chain of events that effectively shut down one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Iran retaliated by restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that, in normal times, carries roughly one-third of the world’s internationally traded fertilizer, including nearly half of global urea exports and 30% of ammonia. According to the FAO, up to 30% of globally traded fertilizer products, about 16 million tonnes annually, typically transit that waterway. When it closes, the ripple effects hit farm fields everywhere, including right here in the Central Valley.

The Price Whiplash: From $516 to $780 and Back Again

The price swings have been staggering. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, urea prices at the New Orleans import hub jumped from $516 per metric ton on February 27 to $683 by March 5, a 32% increase in a single week. By mid-April, urea peaked near $780 per ton. Then, when Iran signaled the strait was reopening, Bloomberg reported prices dropped roughly 18% back to around $640 per ton in a single day, which is still well above where things stood before the conflict began.

The impact on California specifically is already being felt in real, measurable ways. The California Farm Bureau reported that in addition to driving up fuel and fertilizer costs, the war has disrupted access to key California export markets, with Robert Verloop, CEO of the California Walnut Board and Commission, noting that 70,000 tons of walnuts, roughly 10% of the sector’s entire yearly production, were either en route to the Middle East or scheduled to ship there when the crisis hit. Meanwhile, there are reports that input costs, particularly fertilizer, are putting additional strain on California growers who are already dealing with unpredictable weather, early harvests, and tightening margins heading into summer.

Don’t Assume It’s Over: The Strait Is “Open” but Experts Say Relief Is Far From Certain

Here’s the part that matters most right now: even with Iran signaling it has reopened the strait, agricultural economists are urging growers not to assume the crisis is behind them. There are reports stating that a ceasefire announced on April 8 allowed for a two-week reopening period under Iranian military management, but FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero was blunt: “This logistics bottleneck has no viable workaround in the short term.” Many farmers have already made adjusted planting decisions based on the disruption.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace pointed out that even when the strait fully reopens, restarting production and transport for fertilizers and their components could take weeks, weeks that growers simply don’t have during planting season. Shipping insurers are still pricing risk based on instability, not diplomatic statements, meaning delivery timelines remain uncertain. On top of that, Bloomberg reported that China has indicated it will halt sulfuric acid exports starting in May, a key ingredient in phosphate fertilizer production, adding another layer of supply pressure that has nothing to do with whether the strait stays open.

The IFPRI projects global fertilizer prices will average 15–20% higher in the first half of 2026 compared to a year ago, even with some easing underway. For Central Valley growers, that means input costs are likely staying elevated through at least the summer.

What This Means for California Growers Specifically

Central Valley crops, almonds, pistachios, walnuts, citrus, cherries, and row crops, are nitrogen-intensive. These aren’t operations where you can easily skip or significantly reduce a fertilizer application without paying for it in yield and fruit quality at harvest. As former USDA chief economist Seth Meyer told Fortune, “You’ve got the usual tension, you’ve got the added tension of fertilizer and trade, and you’ve got the perhaps more crucial context of, margins are very poor. A bad decision this year could be pretty costly.”

Don Cameron, general manager of Terra Nova Ranch in Fresno and president of the California State Board of Food and Agriculture, framed the season plainly in a recent KQED interview: “We looked at 2026 as a year where, if we broke even, that would be a win.” That was before fertilizer costs spiked further.

This Is Exactly When a Trusted Crop Advisor Pays for Themselves

With fertilizer costs this unpredictable, one of the smartest moves a grower can make right now is working with a licensed PCA/CCA to stress-test their nutrient program. The question isn’t just “can I afford fertilizer?”, it’s “am I applying the right nutrients, at the right rates, at the right time, so nothing is wasted?”

Agri-Valley Consulting, based right here in Central California, has been doing exactly this kind of work with growers for 40 years. Their team of licensed Pest Control Advisors and Certified Crop Advisors specializes in almonds, walnuts, pistachios, tomatoes, cherries, citrus, cotton, corn, and more. Through soil, water, and leaf tissue sampling paired with their proprietary Gro-More nutrient plans, they help growers understand precisely what their crop needs at each stage of the season, so every dollar spent on inputs is working as hard as possible. They also provide variable rate application mapping for precision fertilizer placement and irrigation scheduling tied to actual moisture and crop demand, not guesswork.

In a year where fertilizer costs could make or break your margins, having that level of precision in your nutrient program isn’t a luxury, it’s just good business.

Learn More

To connect with the Agri-Valley Consulting team and learn how they can help you navigate this season’s input challenges, visit agri-valleyconsulting.com.