A Surprising 2.97 Billion Pounds Projected

Terra Nova Trading has officially released its 2025 California Almond Crop Estimate, and the numbers are turning heads. According to the report, the state is expected to produce 2.97 billion pounds of almonds—up from last year’s 2.70 billion pounds in actual receipts.

While the estimate reflects a potential recovery for the industry, it also raises questions about the sustainability and accuracy of projections amid ongoing challenges facing California growers.

Reflecting on 2024: A Tough Season

The 2024 almond season was anything but smooth. An intense heatwave that swept through California from late June to early August hit the crop hard, damaging moisture levels and contributing to smaller yields.

Many growers also cut back on fertilizer and other input applications due to high costs and financial pressure, which likely played a role in the reduced output. These realities made last year’s crop one of the more disappointing in recent memory.

Pollination Problems: Bee Losses Threaten Yields

One of the biggest red flags heading into the 2025 season is the alarming loss of honeybee colonies. According to Terra Nova’s report, beekeepers reported an average 62% colony loss between June 2024 and February 2025.

With pollination being critical to almond production, this level of loss is unprecedented—and it could dramatically affect the true size of this year’s harvest. Whether growers will be able to make up for the bee shortage remains to be seen.

Almond Acreage Holds Steady—For Now

While the crop estimate is trending upward, acreage isn’t. California enters the 2025 season with approximately 1.4 million bearing acres, a number that has stayed relatively flat and even shown net declines over the past three years.

This signals a shift in the long-standing expansion of almond plantings, as growers evaluate long-term water availability, market pricing, and regulatory pressures.

The Bottom Line: Optimism with Caution

Terra Nova’s estimate of 2.97 billion pounds may inspire optimism, but industry insiders know better than to count their almonds before they’re harvested. Weather, pollination, water, and labor will all play major roles in determining the final number.

Still, the resilience of California’s almond growers can’t be overlooked. Even in the face of uncertainty, they continue to adapt, innovate, and push forward.

Want the full breakdown? Read the full Terra Nova Trading 2025 California Almond Crop Estimate.