The U.S. almond market enters 2026 at an inflection point, shaped by resilient export demand, softer domestic movement, and a supply picture that is tightening modestly compared to last year. Recent shipment data and position reports suggest a market that remains functional but selective, with global demand playing an increasingly critical role in maintaining balance.

Export Demand Continues to Anchor Shipments

December 2025 shipment data underscores the importance of international markets in sustaining almond movement. According to Blue Diamond Almonds’ January 2026 Market Report, total shipments for the month reached approximately 245.7 million pounds, representing a 5.4% increase year-over-year, driven almost entirely by exports .

Several regions contributed meaningfully to this performance:

• Vietnam emerged as a standout, with shipments rising more than 70% compared to the prior year, signaling its growing relevance as an end market.
• India remained a key destination, though shipments continue to trail historical averages, reflecting cautious buying patterns and shorter coverage strategies.
• European demand remained steady, with shipments largely flat year-over-year, as buyers emphasized value and near-term needs rather than forward commitments.

This export resilience continues to buffer the market against softness elsewhere and highlights the strategic importance of diversified global demand for U.S. almonds.

Domestic Shipments Lag as Buyers Remain Selective

While exports provided support, domestic almond shipments declined in December, down roughly 12% from the prior year, reflecting subdued retail and foodservice demand . Forward sales also remained light, with buyers maintaining a cautious stance amid pricing uncertainty and broader economic pressures.

This pattern is echoed in the Almond Board of California’s December 2025 Position Report, which shows total shipments from August through December at approximately 1.07 billion pounds, trailing the same period last year . Domestic movement accounted for a disproportionate share of the decline, reinforcing the bifurcation between export and U.S. demand trends.

Supply Tightens Modestly as Crop Receipts Trail Last Year

On the supply side, crop receipts indicate a slightly smaller 2025/26 almond crop compared to the prior season. Blue Diamond estimates the crop finishing near 2.7 billion pounds, below earlier expectations .

The Almond Board’s December Position Report further shows:

• Carry-in inventory of approximately 503 million pounds entering the crop year
• Crop receipts through December totaling roughly 2.57 billion pounds, modestly below last year’s pace
• Total available supply just over 3.0 billion pounds when combining carry-in and new crop

While inventories remain elevated, the pace of receipts and shipments suggests the market is gradually working through supply, albeit more slowly than in prior years.

Inventory and Sales Reflect Market Caution

Despite solid export movement, uncommitted inventory increased year-over-year, as overall sales (product sold but not yet shipped) lagged historical norms . This reflects continued buyer hesitancy and a preference for shorter coverage windows rather than long-term commitments.

As a result, pricing has remained relatively stable, supported by exports but capped by inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior.

Outlook: A Balanced but Watchful Market

Looking ahead, the almond market appears positioned in a stable-to-firm posture, with export demand continuing to serve as the primary support mechanism. However, sustained improvement will likely depend on:

• Renewed domestic demand
• Increased forward sales activity
• Continued strength in key international markets

With bloom approaching and attention shifting toward the next production cycle, market participants will be closely monitoring weather conditions, inventory drawdowns, and global consumption trends.

Broader Industry Context

Longer-term fundamentals remain constructive. Global almond consumption continues to benefit from growth in plant-based foods, snack categories, and ingredient applications, supporting steady demand expansion across developed and emerging markets. As the industry adapts to evolving buyer behavior and supply conditions, export diversification and disciplined inventory management remain central to market stability.